Net clinical benefit of warfarin in individuals with atrial fibrillation across stroke risk and across primary and secondary care

OBJECTIVE To investigate net clinical benefit (NCB) of warfarin in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) across stroke risk and across primary and secondary care. METHODS We conducted a linked electronic health record cohort study of 70 206 individuals with initial record of diagnosis of AF in primary (n=29 568) or secondary care (n=40 638) in England (1998-2010). We defined stroke risk according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score, and followed individuals over a median 2.2 years for 7005 ischaemic strokes (IS) and for 906 haemorrhagic strokes (HS). We calculated incidence rates (IRs) and 95% CIs per 100 person-years (PYs) (IR (95% CI)/100 PY) of IS and HS, with and without use of warfarin, and the NCB (ie, number of IS avoided) per 100 PYs of warfarin use (NCB (95% CI)/100 PY). RESULTS Compared with individuals with initial record of diagnosis in secondary care, those in primary care had lower scores of IS risk (CHA2DS2-VASc≤2: 30.8% vs 20.6%), and lower overall incidence of IS (IR (95% CI)/100 PY: 2.3 (2.2 to 2.4) vs 4.3 (4.2 to 4.4), p value=0.00); however among individuals with CHA2DS2-VASc=0, 1 or 2 there were no differences in IS rate between those with initial record of diagnosis in primary care or secondary care (IR (95% CI)/100 PY: 0.2 (0.1 to 0.3) vs 0.3 (0.2 to 0.5), p value=0.16), (IR (95% CI)/100 PY: 0.6 (0.4 to 0.7) vs 0.7 (0.6 to 0.9), p value=0.08) and (IR (95% CI)/100 PY: 1.1 (1.00 to 1.3) vs 1.4 (1.2 to 1.6), p value=0.05), respectively. For CHA2DS2-VASc=0, 1 and 2, IRs of IS with versus without warfarin were (IR (95% CI)/100 PY: 0.4 (0.2 to 0.8) vs 0.2 (0.1 to 0.3), p value=0.16), (IR (95% CI)/100 PY: 0.4 (0.3 to 0.7) vs 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8), p value=0.03) and (IR (95% CI)/100 PY: 0.8 (0.7 to 1.0) vs 1.4 (1.3 to 1.6), p value=0.00), respectively. We found a significant positive NCB of warfarin from CHA2DS2-VASc≥2 in men (NCB (95% CI)/100 PY: 0.5 (0.1 to 0.9)) and from CHA2DS2-VASc≥3 in women (NCB (95% CI)/100 PY: 1.5 (1.1 to 1.9)). CONCLUSIONS CHA2DS2-VASc accurately stratifies IS risk in individuals with AF across both primary and secondary care. However, the incidence rate of ischaemic stroke at CHA2DS2-VASc=1 are lower than previously reported, which may change the decision to start anticoagulation with warfarin in these individuals.